环境变化对流域水文水资源的影响评估及不确定性研究进展

综述了区分气候变化和人类活动对水文要素影响的研究方法，提出当前研究中应将流域水文过程变化的环境因素来源分为气候自然变异、人为气候变化和人类活动三个方面，并给出了方法体系；基于环境变化下流域水文过程的复杂不确定性，详细剖析了环境变化下流域水文过程的不确定性来源，总结了常用的不确定性评估方法，并介绍了针对定性不确定性（奈特不确定性）评估的信息差距理论。指出为提高减缓和适应环境变化能力，未来应加强以气候自然变异、人为气候变化和人类活动三源分解的环境变化影响研究；不确定性分析应成为环境模拟的固有组成部分，在影响评价中应注重不确定性的评估,并应加强不确定性信息在流域管理决策中的应用研究以及流域风险管理研究。

Review for Impacts Assessment of Environmental Change on Hydrology and Water Resources and Uncertainty in Catchment Scale

A survey of research progress on assessment methods for climate change and human activity affecting hydrological factors in separated manner was executed in this study. A novel idea of source attribution was proposed that changes in hydrological processes brought by environmental reasons could be attributed into three sources: climate natural variability, human-induced climate change, and human activity. Thus a framework was presented. Due to the complex uncertainties in the hydrological processes under environmental change, uncertainty factors in hydrological processes were deeply explored, thus common quantitative and qualitative uncertainty evaluation approaches were summarized. Moreover, the Info-Gap theory was addressed to solve the problem of qualitative uncertainty (Knightian uncertainty) estimation. Finally, to enhance the ability of mitigation and adaptation for environmental change, it demonstrates that in future studies on environmental change impacts should be strengthened in terms of climate natural process, human-induced climate change and human activity. Uncertainty analysis should be an original part of environmental modeling rather than additional or dispensable component. In the impact assessing, it suggests that uncertainty estimation should be fully stressed. Further uncertainty information based on catchment-scale risk management should be facilitated in catchment-scale management decision-making.