中国汽车空调行业HFC-134a需求和排放预测

 近年来HFC-134a作为中国汽车空调行业CFC-12制冷剂最主要的替代品，其消费量增长迅速，是中国消费量最大的HFCs（氢氟烃类物质）。以2005年为基线，通过制冷剂替代、技术进步、熟练操作和政策控制等情景假设，预测了中国汽车空调行业HFC-134a的需求量及排放量。结果表明：到2010和2015年，汽车空调HFC-134a的消费量将分别接近2.0万和3.5万t，排放量将分别接近1.6万和3.0万t，约折合排放21.0 和39.0 Mt CO₂当量。上述排放相对基线情景（即维持当前政策措施和不开展回收活动），2010年和2015年减排温室气体分别为6.7 和13.0 Mt CO₂当量。

Forecasting of Consumption and Emission of HFC-134a Used in Automobile Air Conditioner Sector in China

HFC-134a is the most important alternatives for CFC-12 used in automobile air-conditioning sector in China, and the consumption has been increasing rapidly in recent years; the consumption of HFC-134a is the largest one of HFCs consumptions. Choosing 2005 as the base line year, future consumption and emission amounts of HFC-134a are estimated through scenario analysis: use of non-HFC-134a blends, technology promotion, good practice in servicing, and government policies. The analysis shows that HFC-134a consumption and emission will continue increasing in the next 10 years; the estimated HFC-134a consumption will approach to 20 kt and 35 kt in 2010 and 2015, and the estimated emission will approach to 16 kt and 30 kt, amounting to 21.0 MtCO₂-eq and 39.0 MtCO₂-eq emissions, respectively. Compared with the BAU scenario (under the current policy and no recovery management), the emission reductions in 2010 and 2015 will be 6.7 MtCO₂-eq and 13.0 MtCO₂-eq, respectively.