基于CMIP5模式的中国地区未来洪涝灾害风险变化预估

利用22个CMIP5全球气候模式模拟结果，结合社会经济以及地形高度数据，分析了RCP8.5温室气体排放情景下21世纪近期（2016-2035年）、中期（2046-2065年）和后期（2080-2099年）中国洪涝致灾危险性、承灾体易损性以及洪涝灾害风险。结果表明，洪涝灾害危险等级较高的地区集中在中国的东南部，洪涝承灾体易损度高值区位于中国的东部地区。在RCP8.5情景下，未来我国洪涝灾害高风险区主要出现在四川东部、华东的大部分地区、华北的京津冀地区、陕西和山西的部分地区以及东南沿海部分地区。东北地区的各大省会城市面临洪涝灾害的风险也很高。与基准期（1986-2005年）相比，21世纪后期，虽然发生洪涝灾害的区域变化不大，但高风险区域有所增加。鉴于模式较粗的分辨率以及确定权重系数的方法学等问题，洪涝灾害风险的预估还存在较大的不确定性。

Projected Risk of Flooding Disaster in China Based on CMIP5 Models

Based on the simulations from 22 CMIP5 models and in combination with the socio-economic data and terrain elevation data, the spatial distributions of the risk level of flooding-induced disaster, the vulnerability of flooding hazard affected body and the risk of flooding hazard in China respectively during the near term (2016-2035), medium term (2046-2065) and long term (2080-2099) are projected under RCP8.5. The results show that regions with high risk level of flooding hazard are mainly located in southeastern China, and the vulnerability of flood hazard bearing body in eastern China is also high. Under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the high risk of flooding disaster in future would mainly appear in eastern part of Sichuan, major of East China, Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin region of North China. The major capital cities in Northeast China and some parts of Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces as well as some coastal areas in Southeast China would also encounter high incidence of flooding disaster. Compared with the baseline period, 21st century forward, although the occurrence of floods area changes little, the regional strong risk will increase during the end of the 21st century. Due to the coarse resolution of climate models and the methodology for determining weight coefficients, large uncertainty still exists in the projection of the flooding disaster risk.