乡村人群气候变化感知的初步分析——以黑龙江省漠河县为例

 以我国黑龙江省漠河县气象站点1980-2005年逐日平均气温和逐日降水量数据为参照，通过问卷调查和访谈的方式，探讨过去20 a来乡村人群对当地气候变化的感知情况。结果表明：漠河县乡村人群具有较强的气候变化感知能力，对于气候变化趋势的感知相对较为准确，但因受到个体客观背景环境的影响，感知结果存在一定的不确定性；由于可参照时间范围相对较短，人群对变化强度的感知存在一定的片面性；人群能够正确认识气候变化的影响并做出相应的调整，但调整的幅度通常较难把握。

Peasants' Perception on Climate Change——A Case Study on Mohe County in Heilongjiang Province

Perception is the first step of adaptation, which could affect human's decision-making and behavior pattern. Based on the statistics of the random sampling survey of climate change awareness and meteorological data from 1980 to 2005 in Mohe County of Heilongjiang Province, theories of Environmental Psychology and Behavioral Economics have been used to analyze the peasants?perception on climate change in the past 20 years. The results show that the peasants have good perceiving capacity for climate change trends, and can make right perception, although uncertainty exists because of individual differences in objective. Perception of climate change intensity based on weather or climate condition in past 2 to 3 years corresponds to the real fact, but it is uncertain to reflect long-term fluctuations in climate. Even though the peasants have correct understanding on climate change and make corresponding adjustment, it's hard to grasp the adjustment range.