气候变化和人类活动对永定河流域径流变化影响定量研究

以永定河流域为研究对象，在对永定河流域1957-2010年降水、实际蒸发和气温实测资料进行趋势分析的基础上，建立SWAT模型，验证了还原径流的必要性，对气候变化和人类活动对永定河流域径流的影响进行了定量研究。结果表明：20世纪60、70年代为永定河流域的丰水期，80年代至今为枯水期。永定河流域80年代后的实测径流资料受气候变化和人类活动影响显著，需进行径流还原后才能保证径流资料的一致性。气候变化是80年代后期径流减少的主要原因，其贡献量约占总减少量的65.4%，人类活动的贡献量占34.6%，也是不容忽视的因素。

Quantitative Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Yongding River Basin

As climate change and human activities have had a profound and lasting impact on the hydrologic progresses, it is urgent to assess and separate the responses of runoff to the two driving factors. In this study, the variations of precipitation, evaporation and temperature in the Yongding River basin were examined for over five decades in 1957-2010. The results show that it is a wet period during the 1960s and 1970s but a dry period since 1980s. Climate change and human activities have significant influences on the runoff in this basin. The SWAT hydrological model was established to confirm the need of runoff restoration for the following research. With regard to the runoff quantitative responses to climate change and human activities, climate change is the dominant influence factor with a contribution of 65.4%. However, as the value of observed stream flow is almost equal to that caused by human activities, the driving factor of human activities cannot be neglected in future study.