吉林省城市住宅采暖气候耗能距平序列的建立方法

由于中国社会经济统计资料中均缺乏历年采暖能源消费数据，在分析气候变化对采暖能耗的影响时，始终存在着一个瓶颈。为此,提出了一种城市住宅采暖气候耗能距平序列的建立方法，这种方法把气候变化因素与相关的社会经济因素（如人口、人均居住面积等）结合在一起，较直观地反映了气候变化对城市住宅采暖耗能的影响。以地处高纬的吉林省为例，利用吉林省历年城镇人口、城镇人均居住面积、采暖度日数以及单位面积采暖耗煤量指标，建立了吉林省历年采暖气候耗能距平序列。结果表明：相对于1971-2000年30 a平均气候状况，吉林省2001/2002年的采暖期理论上因气候偏暖可以节约35.98万t标准煤，而2000/2001年采暖期因气候偏冷需要增加15.5万t标准煤。

A New Method to Construct Anomaly Series of Climatic Energy Consumption for Urban Residential Heating in Jilin Province

Lack of climatic energy consumption data in socio-economics in China has become a bottleneck for researches on impacts of climate change on climatic energy consumption, such as residential heating and cooling etc. A method to construct the anomaly series of climatic energy consumption for residential heating in towns and cities is presented. It combines climate factors with socio-economic factors, such as population and per capita residential area, together, and intuitively reflects the impacts of climate on the energy consumption for urban residential heating. Based on four variables: annual town and city population, per capita residential area, heating degree-day (the base temperature is 18℃) and the standard coal consumption for heating defined in energy Conservation Design Standard for New Heating Residential Buildings (JCJ26-95)? the following conclusions are drawn: theoretically, about 360 thousand tons standard coal for heating in the warmer winter of 2001/2002 could be saved in comparison with the standard energy consumption for the average climate over 1971-2000 and in the colder winter of 2000/2001 extra 155 thousand tons standard coal for heating could be added in Jilin Province.