国家温室气体清单时间序列一致性和2005年清单重算研究

《巴黎协定》透明度后续实施细则对发展中国家温室气体清单时间序列一致性方面的要求显著增强。文中基于IPCC清单指南中对温室气体清单重算的要求,对作为我国国家自主贡献基年的2005年温室气体清单进行重算。由于增加了新的排放源或吸收汇、更新部分活动水平或排放因子数据以及采用了更新的方法学,重算后的2005年国家温室气体清单排放量（以CO₂当量计,下同）为80.15亿t（不包括土地利用、土地利用变化和林业,即LULUCF),相比重算前增加了6.6%。能源领域对重算后总排放量上升影响最大,增加了4.26亿t,其中CO₂增长主要来自第三次全国经济普查（三经普）对2005年化石燃料消费量的修订,甲烷（CH₄）和氧化亚氮（N₂O）排放上升主要原因是新增加了排放源。未来我国将更频繁地对以往清单年份开展重算,建议结合《巴黎协定》实施细则要求加强对我国温室气体清单时间序列一致性问题的研究,以更好地支撑国内应对气候变化决策分析,以及满足未来《巴黎协定》下的履约要求。

National GHG inventory time series consistency analysis and 2005 inventory recalculation

The new rules of the enhanced transparency framework of the Paris Agreement adopted at the end of 2018 significantly enhance the requirements for greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories consistency for developing countries. The authors recalculated the 2005 GHG inventory, which is the base year of China’s nationally determined contribution, based on the requirements for recalculation of GHG inventories in the IPCC inventory guidelines. The emissions of recalculated 2005 national GHG inventory was 8.015 billion tons of CO₂-eq (excluding LULUCF). It increased by 6.6% after recalculation, due to the addition of new sources or sinks, updating of some activity data and emission factors, and using updated methodologies. The energy sector has the greatest impact on the increase in total emissions after recalculation, with an increase of 426 million tons of CO₂-eq. The increase in CO₂ is mainly due to the revision of fossil fuel consumption in 2005 by the “third census”. The increase in CH₄ and N₂O emissions is mainly due to including new sources. In the future, China will carry out recalculations more frequently. It is suggested that the study of the time series consistency of China’s GHG inventory preparation should be strengthened in conjunction with the new guidelines to better support domestic climate change decision and to meet the compliance requirements under the future transparency framework.