德国WBGU碳预算方案解析与中国社会科学院方案比较

在《联合国气候变化框架公约》第15次缔约方会议召开前夕，德国发布了一份旨在通过对未来排放空间进行管理以实现长期减排目标、构建全球低碳经济的国际气候制度设计方案。该方案的研究思路与中国社会科学院学者提出的碳预算方案基本一致，但是两种方案在参数选择、减排路径、历史责任计算等问题上存在较大分歧。虽然德国方案力图平衡南北双方在气候领域的不同利益诉求，但从结果上看，德国方案明显有利于发达国家集团，公平性不足，难以达到其方案设计效果。

Comparison and Analysis on Both Carbon Budget Proposals from WBGU and CASS

On the eve of the COP15, the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) proposed a budget approach for solving the climate dilemma of existing international climate change regime, this proposal aimed to realize the long-term emission reduction target and build global low-carbon economy by managing the future greenhouse gases emission space. German carbon budget proposal is similar to China's carbon budget proposal published in the COP14, but the both still differ in some parameters, path of emission reduction, historical emission responsibility, etc. German proposal might try to meet the demand of both the north and south countries, but the unfair design makes it unfeasible.