《巴黎协定》与特朗普政府的履约前景

《巴黎协定》生效标志着全球气候治理进程从达约阶段转向履约阶段。但是，履约阶段并不意味着全球气候风险得到控制，反而面临新的挑战。本文从《巴黎协定》入手，分析了《巴黎协定》自身存在的不足，重点考察了美国的履约意愿，分析了特朗普政府退出《巴黎协定》及其影响，探讨了未来美国的气候立场。研究发现，《巴黎协定》在减排力度、气候资金及遵约条款三方面存在先天不足，导致《巴黎协定》有效性仍取决于缔约方的履约意愿和履约能力。当前美国国内政局演变导致美国联邦政府气候政策出现倒退，有可能对《巴黎协定》缔约方的履约意愿和履约能力产生不良影响。但是，这种不良影响仅仅是短暂的。美国在国际格局中的地位变化以及美国业已成形的低碳转型，共同决定了特朗普气候政策并不会从根本上动摇《巴黎协定》。长期来看，美国对全球领导力的诉求、国内应对气候变化的内在动力以及来自外部的道义压力这三大因素势将促使美国在未来重新回归《巴黎协定》。

Trump Administration and the Compliance of the Paris Agreement

The entry into force of the Paris Agreement marks the transition of the global climate governance from the negotiation to the compliance. However, that does not mean global climate risk is under control, but rather faces new challenges. In this paper, the three shortcomings of the Paris Agreement are identified, Trump administration's weak climate willingness and their consequencesare are analyzed, and the climate policy possibility of the United States in the future are discussed. It's found that the Paris Agreement has three inherent deficiencies and thus the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement during the implementation process was still dependent on the compliance willingness and compliance capacity of the Parties. Trump administration's climate retreat could have negative impacts on the Parties' compliance willingness and compliance capacity. However, those adverse effects are only short-lived. The status of the United States in the international structure and its established low carbon transition trend will jointly determine Trump administration's withdrawal will not fundamentally shake the Paris Agreement. In the long run, the intention of the United States for global leadership, the domestic dynamics to address climate change, and the moral pressures from outside will inevitably lead the United States to return to the Paris Agreement.