未来气候变化对湖北省钉螺潜在分布的影响

利用最大熵模型，结合地形、植被、气象等环境因子，模拟了湖北省钉螺在基准期（1986-2005年）的分布，预测了RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5这3种未来情景下2021-2040年、2051-2070年和2081-2100年湖北省钉螺潜在分布风险。结果表明，基于主导环境因子建立的最大熵模型的受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）下的面积（AUC）平均值达到0.894±0.024，可用于未来气候变化情景下湖北省钉螺的潜在分布研究。3种排放情景下钉螺潜在分布低、中风险区范围相对基准期分别扩大了4.5%和1.6%，无风险区范围缩小了9.3%；伴随着未来可能的气候变化，钉螺潜在分布中、高风险区向北移动。

Impact of Future Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Oncomelania in Hubei Province

Based on Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model and combined with topographic, vegetational, meteorological and other environmental factors, potential distribution of Oncomelania in Hubei province in base period (1986-2005) was simulated, and potential distribution risk zones of Oncomelania in Hubei province under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during 2021-2040, 2051-2070 and 2081-2100 were projected respectively. The results showed that, the projection with MaxEnt model had a higher simulation accuracy with its mean AUC of ROC value of 0.894±0.024, which was credible and acceptable for future Oncomelania potential distribution projection in Hubei province under the three RCPs. Oncomelania potential distribution illustrated an extension at low and middle risk by 4.5% and 1.6% respectively and reduction of risk-free by 9.3% compared with the base period. Oncomelania potential distribution zones at middle and high risk would move northward.