基于人工边坡稳定性的降雨型滑坡预警预报模型设计与应用

由削坡建房遗留的人工边坡存在大量滑坡隐患问题,在降雨引发土质边坡自身动力变化分析条件下,以稳定性评价建模为基础,提出降雨型滑坡动力学预警预报模型。文中以广东省梅州市花岗岩地区为例,使用GIS技术构建了1 727个预警分析单元,并进行关键地质环境因子赋值及与气象站点数据关联;按坡高、坡度等参数,分别构建16个边坡失稳动力学预警模块,并根据降雨量变化,计算边坡稳定性系数,最终按其阈值确定风险等级并予以预警。本研究对于推动人工边坡诱发的滑坡地质灾害预警预报与预防均具有重要意义。

Design and analysis of early warning and forecast model for rainfall-induced landslide based on artificial soil slope stability

There are a lot of hidden dangers of landslides on the artificial soil slopes left behind by cutting slopes for building houses in low mountain and hill areas. Under the conditions of analyzing the dynamic changes of the soil slopes caused by rainfall, this paper proposes a rainfall-induced landslide dynamical early warning and forecasting model based on the stability evaluation modeling. Taking the granite area of Meizhou, Guangdong Province as an example, this paper uses GIS technology to construct 1 727 early warning analysis units, assigns key geological environmental factors, and associates with meteorological station data; 16 slopes are constructed according to the slope height, slope, and other parameters. On this basis, the instability dynamics early warning module calculates the slope stability coefficient according to the rainfall changes and finally determines the early warning risk level according to thresholds. This research is of great significance for promoting the early warning, forecasting, and prevention of landslide geological hazards induced by artificial soil slopes.