基于统计学的地震显著平静阈值估计

提出具有统计学意义的地震显著平静阈值估算方法,用于中国大陆及川滇、新疆和华北地区中强震活动分析,在不同区域得到不同起始震级的显著平静阈值范围。结果显示:(1)中国大陆7级、6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为3.9-6.2年、7.9-9.6个月和62-70天;(2)川滇地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为2.1-2.9年和7.0-8.5个月;(3)新疆地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为2.6-4.0年和8.5-10.5个月;(4)华北地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为11.7-23.4年和5.2-7.7年。

A method based on statistics for estimating the threshold of significant seismic quiescence and application case

We propose a method based on statistics for estimating the threshold of significant seismic quiescence. The method is applied to the Chinese Mainland, Sichuan and Yunnan area, Xinjiang area, and North China. And thresholds of significant seismic quiescence are obtained in these areas with different initial magnitudes.①The thresholds of significant seismic quiescence with M_S ≥ 7.0, 6.0, and 5.0 are 3.9-6.2 years, 7.9-9.6 months, and 62-70 days, respectively, in the Chinese Mainland.②The thresholds of significant seismic quiescence with M_S ≥ 6.0 and 5.0 are 2.1-2.9 years and 210-255 days, respectively, in Sichuan and Yunnan area.③The thresholds of significant seismic quiescence with M_S ≥ 6.0 and 5.0 are 2.6-4.0 years and 255-318 days, respectively, in Xinjiang area. ④The thresholds of significant seismic quiescence with M_S ≥ 6.0 and 5.0 are 11.7-23.4 years and 5.2-7.7 years, respectively, in North China.