地震活动性总体参量Rt在北京及邻区地震预测中的应用

采用地震活动性总体参量R_t方法,研究北京及邻区R_t值在中等地震前随时间的变化特征,分析跟踪地震发生前研究区域地震活动状态,探讨中等地震孕震过程的异常信息的变化特征。结果显示:当R_t值大于阈值0.84时,研究区域地震活动状态比较稳定,发生中等地震的可能性较小;反之,表明地震活动处于不稳定状态,具有发生中等地震的危险。检验R_t值的地震预测效能,预测效果比较理想,利用地震活动状态参量R_t研究北京及邻区地震活动状态,判定中等地震发生的风险性,具有一定预测意义。

Application of general parameter Rt to earthquake prediction in Beijing and its adjacent areas

Integrated parameter R_t is used to study the characteristics about the temporal variation of abnormal informations before moderate earthquakes in Beijing and its adjacent areas, analyzed and tracked the seismicity state of the research area before earthquakes. We discussed the characteristics about the temporal variation of precursory information before moderate earthquakes.The result shows that:when the R_t is larger than threshold 0.84, the state of seismic activity is relatively stable in the study area, the possibility of occurring moderate earthquakes is small; otherwise, when the R_t is smaller than threshold 0.84, then shows the seismic state is unstable and the possibility of occurring moderate earthquakes is more likely. The earthquake prediction efficiency of R_t value is tested, and the prediction effect is more ideal, this is significant predictor for study on seismicity state of Beijing and its adjacent areas by using integrated parameter R_t and determined the moderate risk of earthquake occurrence.