华北地区强震重复性模式的讨论

根据位错量与地震应变能的关系及岩石不均匀脆性材料在受力后小破裂增加的特点，本文对华北这一相对完整块体的强震、强震丛、中强地震的活动参数与发震时间间隔进行了研究，初步建立了一种强震重复性的非线性简化模式，对强震丛之前中强地震的时间分布入物理力学过程有了一个大概的认识。在此基础上，讨论了中长期地震预测中的两个具体问题：①如何估计地震活动高潮时段开始时间；②高潮时段强震规模与结构的估计。

DISCUSSION ON REPEATABILITY MODELS OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN NORTH CHINA

According to the relation between dislocation and strain energy and the feature that microrupture increase in nonuniform brittle rock materials under the applied stress, the paper studied the activity coefficient of strong earthquakes, clustering of strong earthquakes and moderately strong earthquakes and the recurrence interval of earthquakes and established the nonlinesr simplified models of repeatability of strong earthquakes, then obtained the superficial recognition about the time distribution of moderately strong earthquakes and their physical process before a cluster of strong earthquakes. On the basis of these, discussed two questions about the long and medium-term earthquake prediction:(1)How to estimate the beginning time of the recurrence interval during high seismic activity;(2)How to estimate the scale and the structure of strong earthquakes in the recurrence interval during high seismic activity.