| 以模式识别方法提取后续最大地震预测的综合指标 |
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| 引用本文： | 周翠英,张宇霞.以模式识别方法提取后续最大地震预测的综合指标[J].地震,1996,16(3):239-244. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周翠英 张宇霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省地震局，山东省地震局，国家地震局分析预报中心，国家地震局分析预报中心 中国济南 250021，中国济南 250021，中国北京 100036，中国北京 100036 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家地震局“八五”攻关(85-04-03-01-10)项目中专题研究 |
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| 摘 要： | 以模识别的ＣＯＲＡ－３方法对４２具有较大后续余震的序列分两类进行识别。从中提取了使用Ｍ１后１ｄ的序列资料判断２－６０ｄ内是否有可能发生后续大震的综合指标，经检验，该指标正确识别率可达９５％，且按为简单实用，可用于大震现场的地震趋势估计，同时给出了在Ｍ１以后２－６０ｄ不同时间段内最大后续地震的发生概率。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预测 模式识别 地震预测 综合指数 |
COMPREHENSIVE PREDICTION INDEX OF A MAXIMUM SEQUENT EARTHQUAKE BY PATTERN RECOGNITION |
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| Zhou Cuiying Wang Hongwei.COMPREHENSIVE PREDICTION INDEX OF A MAXIMUM SEQUENT EARTHQUAKE BY PATTERN RECOGNITION[J].Earthquake,1996,16(3):239-244. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Cuiying Wang Hongwei |
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| Abstract: | By means of pattern recognition method of CORA-3, two kinds of earthquake sequences that were followed by strong aftershocks have been identified. Based on this, we obtained the comprehensive discriminate index that would identify whether a maximal sequent earthquake will occur in 2-60 days after first strong earthquake (M1) in a strong earthquake sequence. About 95% of the events have been correctly identified by these indexes, which shows that the indexes can be directly used to predict the maximum sequent earthquakes in a strong earthquake sequence.
Probability of the maximum sequent earthquake occurrence in various intervals of 2 to 60 days is given in this paper. |
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| Keywords: | Pattern recognition Seismic sequence Maximum sequent earthquake Comprehensive index |
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