1972～2001年四川及邻区大震危险性预测研究的检验与思考

回顾了1972～2001年间省内外地震学者对四川震情研究的44篇文献中所提出的预测意见和实际检验情况,对其中的主要预测依据、预报能力、应用条件分别作了进一步分析。最后归纳了近期、中期、中短期3类强震趋势活动图像特征：近期危险性分析侧重地震带是否可能进入大震活跃幕;中期危险性分析侧重大震活跃幕的类型及窗口、相关、信号等地震是否发生;中短期危险性分析侧重中强震的条带、丛、环异常及诱发地震、逼近地震、缺震事件。实践表明,图像分析中尤应注意与孕震环境由大至小的整体分析和发展阶段的个性研究相结合。

Test and thought on the seismic risk of Sichuan and nearby regions from 1972 to 2001

The forecasting suggestions and the testing results listed in the reference of this paper made by seismological researchers of Sichuan and other provinces on the seismic risk of Sichuan Province from 1972 to 2001 are summarized. The main facts, prediction ability and additional condition using these methods are discussed. The image characters of the seismic risk tendencies for near, middle term and short term are summed up. Our results show that when the images analysis methods are applied, the factors such as the seismogenic environment from a big to a small block, and the development phases from a short to a long period should be studied with carefully.