Changes in flood regime by use of the modified curve number method

Abstract

This paper describes the use of a simple two stage rainfall-runoff model in which a curve number (CN) principle is used to calculate the soil water content and, subsequently, the rainfall contribution to direct runoff and groundwater flow. The maximum soil water retention, S, is used to express various characteristics of a catchment (infiltration rate, soil cover and land use, as in the CN method) relevant to flood formation. Using historical flood events, the model is calibrated, and the statistical distribution parameters of peak flows determined. With the same historical input data scenarios (rainfall), sets of flood hydrographs are simulated for various values of the parameter S, and corresponding distribution parameters of peak flows are determined. This procedure is used to demonstrate possible changes in flood regime to be expected due to changes of the catchment soil properties and its vegetation cover. A case study is presented for the River Hron catchment, area 582 km², in the mountainous region of central Slovakia.