祁连山-河西走廊西段强震复发概率模型及强震潜势评估

祁连山-河西走廊西段构造区发育多条重要活动断裂，多年来已积累较丰富的古地震研究的成果。本文在前人研究基础上，结合历史地震数据等，从定量化强震复发间隔T与平均复发间隔T_a入手，将其比值（T/T_a）进行数学处理，借鉴NB模型的思路，建立祁连山-河西走廊西段构造区模型，进而对强震潜势进行评估。结果表明:祁连山-河西走廊西段构造区内未来可能的强震发生地点是榆木山北缘断裂芦泉河-九个泉段和榆木山东缘断裂梨园河口-黑河口段。

Probability Model for Strong Earthquake Recurrence and Estimates of Seismic Potential in Western Qilian Mt.-Hexi Corridor

Multiple important active faults are developed in western Qilian Mt.- Hexi Corridor, and quantitative research, especially systematic summary on paleoe-earthquakes are carried out in these years.This paper starts with paleoearthquakes and historic and recent earthquakes recurrence intervals for main active fault zones in western Qilian Mt.-Hexi Corridor since Late Pleistocene. By drawing lessons from modeling method of NB model, we have calculated the strong earthquake recurrence interval (T), average strong earthquake recurrence interval (T_a) and value of normalized function (T/T_a) for all specific fault segments, and established the strong earthquake recurrence probability model which shows that the distribution of normalized strong earthquake recurrence internal follows a normal distribution with mean (μ) equal to 1 and standard deviation (σ) of 0.224 3. The result reveals that the potential fault segments for the occurrence of future strong earthquake should be Luquanhe-Jiugequan segment of northern margin fault of Yumushan and Liyuanhe estuary-Heihe estuary part of eastern margin fault of Yumushan.