地震短临综合预报方法的研究

本文在《中国震例》资料基础上,详细分析了华北地区１７次中强以上地震前的短临异常,得到华北地区中强以上地震短临异常的三个综合特征,在归纳出短临异常综合特征的基础上,提出了两个判定孕震过程、前兆异常由中期向短期过渡的定量的综合标志。据中期异常的追踪分析和短临异常综合分析相结合的原则,定义并计算了综合预报指标Ｓ值,以此值作为是否发生中强以上地震的判据。本文的重点是在分析短临异常综合特征的基础上,结合实用

A STUDY OF SHORT TERM AND IMMINENT COMPREHENSIVE PREDICTION METHOD OF EARTRQUAKES

Basing on the data of" Earthquake Examples in China", this paper analyzed the short term and imminent anomalies before 17 moderately strong or larger earthquakes in detail and obtined 3 comprehensive characteristics of short term and imminent anomalies of the moderately strong or larger earthquakes in North China area. Based on the summing up of comprehensive characteristics of the short term and imminent anomalies, 2 quantitative comprehensive marks to identify the seismogenic process and the transition of precusory anomalies from mid term to short term have been put forward. On the principle of combining the tracing analysis of mid-term anomalies with the comprehensive analysis of shortterm anomalies, the comprehensive prediction index s value was defined and calculated, which is used as an criterion whether to make a prediction of moderately strong or larger earthquake or not. The stress of this paper is to study the short term and imminent comprehensive prediction method of earthquakes based on the analysis of the comprehensive characteristic of short term and imminent anomalies.