南天山东西二段地震活动的关联性及其在地震预报中的意义

采用可定量描述地震活动强弱程度的“地震活动度”方法，研究了新疆南天山东西二段的地震活动特征。发现地震活动自西向东迁移，强度逐渐衰减，东段的地震活动比西段滞后1年左右。进一步分析认为，由于 印度洋板块向北挤压，使帕米尔地区成为应力高度集中区，这是南天山地震活动的动力来源。

THE CORRELATION BETWEEN SEISMICITIES OF EAST AND WEST SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN TIANSHAN AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

The seismically active degree S value that can quantitatively describe strong weak level of seismicity is used to study seismicity characteristics of east and west sections of southern Tianshan in Xinjiang.It is found that seismicities of the two sections are closely correlative,and earthquakes migrate from the west section to the east section.The seismicity of the east section is behind that of the west section for one year or so.It is believed that the above mentioned characteristics can be applied in earthquake prediction of southern Tianshan.The push and extrusion of the Pamirs block towards NE direction from the Indian plate may be dynamical source of seismicity in southern Tianshan.