| An scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction ability |
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| 作者姓名： | 张国民 刘杰 石耀霖 |
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| 作者单位： | ZHANG Guo-min1) LIU Jie1) SHI Yao-lin2) 1) Center for Analysis and Prediction，China Seismological Bureau，Beijing 100036，China 2) Graduate School，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100039，China |
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| 基金项目： | The Development and Planning Project of National Important Base Research (G19980407). |
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| 摘 要： | Introduction There have been nearly 40 years for earthquake prediction since the research on earthquake prediction was carried out in plan by some advanced countries since 1960s. For the hard long process of earthquake prediction, Alen, American famous scientist and former president of the evaluation commission of earthquake prediction in California, USA, said that the difficulty of earthquake prediction is more than the expected and the practical progress of earthquake prediction is more sl…
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| 收稿时间： | 17 January 2002 |
| 修稿时间： | 27 April 2002 |
An scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction ability |
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| Zhang Guo-min , Liu Jie and Shi Yao-lin.An scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction ability[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition),2002,15(5):550-558. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Guo-min Liu Jie and Shi Yao-lin |
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| Institution: | 1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100036, China
2. Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China |
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| Abstract: | The scientific idea of earthquake prediction in China is introduced in this paper. The various problems on evaluation of earthquake prediction ability are analyzed. The practical effect of prediction on annual seismic risk areas in 1990~2000 in China is discussed based on R-value evaluation method, and the ability of present earthquake prediction in China is reviewed. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake prediction annual consulation prediction evaluation |
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