新20号井井水位动态分析及地震预测效能评价

对新20号井井水位动态观测资料进行了全时间过程扫描，分析了井水位的年变化规律、主要干扰因素和地震短期前兆异常特征，提出了如何判别水位年变叠加、峰谷相位移动和峰谷极差增减等异常是否打破年变规律的有效方法。根据这些指标，统计了观测期间乌鲁木齐监视区内发生5级以上地震时水位的相关异常参数，并对该井的地震预测效能进行了初步评价。

ANALYSIS ON THE BEHAVIOR OF WATER LEVEL IN XINJIANG NO.20 WELL AND EVALUATION OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION EFFICACY

The yearly variation rule of water level behavior in Xinjiang No.20 well, main disturbance factors and short-term earthquake precursor feature were studied on the basis of analyzing 1986-2001 water level data of the well, and some effective criteria to judge water level anomaly were put forward, such as yearly variation stack on normal background, peak-to-valley phase advance or postponement, peak-to-valley difference value change. Based on the judging criteria, related water level anomaly parameters of Xinjiang No.20 well during the earthquakes with magnitude 5 or so were made a statistics and analysis. It is thought that the water well of Xinjiang No.20 well is of certain seismic prediction efficacy.