| 月际地震趋势的数值预测法 |
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| 引用本文： | 黎令仪,刘德富,康春丽,韩延本.月际地震趋势的数值预测法[J].地震学报,2004,26(5):529-532. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黎令仪 刘德富 康春丽 韩延本 |
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| 作者单位： | 1) 中国北京100036中国地震局地震预测研究所
2) 中国北京100012中国科学院国家天文台 |
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| 摘 要： | 考虑到目前地震月趋势以模糊用语进行预测的缺陷,本文提出采用数值预测法能更好地适应社会需求. 这种方法是基于地震有自律现象,通过建立非线性的数学模型予以实现的. 模型试验结果表明,我国大陆地震活动存在有7~8个月左右的循环结构,逐月比较预测与实况的震级误差平均低于0.2级,因而该方法比经验性预报更适宜社会的实际利用.
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| 关 键 词： | 地震趋势& 地震自律& 数值模型& 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 0253-3782(2004)05-0529-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年6月2日 |
A NUMERICAL PREDICTING METHOD ON MONTHLY SEISMIC TENDENCY |
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| Li Lingyi , Liu Defu , Kang Chunli Han Yanben Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing ,China National Astronomical Observatory,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing ,China.A NUMERICAL PREDICTING METHOD ON MONTHLY SEISMIC TENDENCY[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2004,26(5):529-532. |
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| Authors: | Li Lingyi Liu Defu Kang Chunli Han Yanben Center for Analysis and Prediction China Earthquake Administration Beijing China National Astronomical Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China |
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| Institution: | Li Lingyi 1,2) Liu Defu 1,2) Kang Chunli 1) Han Yanben 2) 1) Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China 2) National Astronomical Observatory,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100012,China |
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| Abstract: | Considering the deficiency of using vague language in predicting monthly seismic tendency, we propose a numerical predicting method in the paper, which may be more applicable to the society. The method is based on the "self-rhythm" phenomenon of earthquake activities, which calculates monthly seismic tendency through nonlinear mathematical model. The result of modeling test shows that there exists a kind of seismic cyclic process of every 7 to 8 months in Chinese mainland, and the average error from comparing monthly predicted and observed earthquake magnitudes is below 0.2. Thus the method is more applicable to the society than the experiential prediction. |
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| Keywords: | seismic tendency self-rhythm numerical model prediction |
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