川滇地区地壳水平运动的弹性块体边界负位错模型与强震地点预测

利用川滇地区1991～1999年和1999～2001年GPS水平运动速度场成果，通过研究建立的块体弹性变形及其边界负位错部分锁定的复合作用模型反演，获取地壳水平运动反映的块体变形差异、边界断裂的高应变能积累部位和锁定能量强度，以及区域构造应变场的时空演化图像。在充分考虑区域构造和块体变形的前提下，研究与该区6级以上强震孕育及地点判定有关的背景性前兆的共性特征。

Negative Dislocation Model of Elastic Block Boundary of Horizontal Crustal Movement and the Prediction of Strong Earthquake Position in Sichuan-Yunnan Area

Making use of the velocity field result of horizontal motion observed by GPS during 1991-1999 and 1999-2001 in Sichuan-Yunnan area,we studied the inversion of negative dislocation model of elastic block boundary, and obtained the block deformation difference, accumulated position and intensity of high strain energy revealed by horizontal crustal motion data,as well as the space-time pictures of the regional tectonic strain field. Under the full consideration of tectonics and block deformation,we discussed the common features of background precursor related to the development of strong earthquakes with the magnitude more than 6 and location determining .