海陆风及沿海风速廓线在风电场风速预报中的应用

为了建立沿海风功率预报系统，本文探讨了中国沿海风电场风速预报问题，并利用数值模式RAMS对海陆风进行了模拟研究.发现海陆风发生时，海风和陆风阶段风速廓线存在较大差异，海风阶段风速的垂直切变明显小于陆风阶段.海陆风发生时，风速会呈现有规律的变化，即海风和陆风分别有两个时段：风速增加时段和风速减少时段.在为沿海风电场提供风速预报时，当模式预报到海陆风发生时，可以利用海陆风的这种特点，使用统计方法对预报出的风速进行有效的订正.并发现即使没有海陆风发生，当风向为海洋吹向陆地时，风速随高度的垂直切变同样小于陆地吹向海洋的时段.利用统计方法根据不同风向时风速廓线的特性，把数值模式计算高度上的预报结果，精确地插值到风机涡轮高度，会很大程度上减少风速预报的误差及风功率预报环节的误差.

Land-sea breeze and the application of wind profile in the wind speed forecasting to wind farm along the coast

To establish a system for wind power forecasting, we investigate the question of wind speed forecasting to wind farm at coast areas, and use RAMS to make the simulation of land-sea breeze. The wind profiles have great differences when blowing from land and sea. Wind shear is smaller when blowing from sea than blowing from land. When land sea breeze takes place, wind speed will show two separated processes: wind speed increasing and wind speed descending for land breeze and sea breeze. When forecasting wind speed to wind farm at coast, if there is land sea breeze, we can use the characteristic of wind profile using stastical method to correct the forecasing by model. And we find that, even there is no land-sea breeze when wind blowing from sea the wind profile shear is also smaller than blowing from land, using stastical method based on the wind direction and the characteristic of wind profile, we can make more precise forecasting at hub height, and reduce the error when forecasting power output of wind farm.