ENSO和长江大水对天文因子的响应研究

ENSO（厄尔尼诺和南方涛动的总称）对世界尺度的天气气候有影响,本文用概率论统计检验方法,查明长江大水与ENSO以及ENSO与天文因子的相关关系,并系统分析了三者之间的相关关系。结果表明:ENSO事件对天文物理主周期和天文特征有明显的响应,长江大水年对太阳活动特征、节气日的月相年变化和ENSO也有显著的响应关系。这些关系对长江大水的准确预测有重要价值。文中对天文物理因子对ENSO和大水的影响机理进行了探讨。

THE STUDY ON THE RESPONDING OF ENSO AND SEVERE FLOODS IN THE YANGTZE RIVER TO THE ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS

EL Nino events and southern oscillation （named as ENSO） have impacts on the global weather climate. In order to know the remote response of severe flood in the Yangtze River to ENSO, as well as ENSO and severe floods to the astronomical factors, this paper presents the statistical analysis of the relation among the floods, ENSO and astronomical factors and draws satisfactory results. The main conclusions are as follows: （1） ENSO events have remarkable sensitivity to astronomical characteristic point during the recent 400 years （during 1600-1999）. （2） 64% （7/11） of eleven catastrophic floods years （1823（m）, 1831 （M+1）, 1833 （m）,1848（M）,1849（M+l）, 1889（m） ,1915, 1931, 1948（M + 1）, 1954（m）1998） in the Yangtze River （precipitation grade index for average of 16 stations that among 1. 0-1. 7） occurred in the （M + l） and m year of annual mean solar activity for recent 251 years （1749-1999）. （3） There were only five years （1931、1950、1969、1980、1999） in 19 Feb. of lunar calendar for the moon's phase on the Day （solar longitude in degrees） of pure Brightness solar term during 1900-1999, in which 80% （4/5） of heavy floods appeared in the basin of Yangtze River （1931, 1969, 1980 and 1999）, 60% （3/5） in the Huai River （1931, 1950 and 1980）. （4） 77% （13/17） of years with the ENSO Events corresponded to 18-19 a astronomy physical rhythm period in the Yangtze River during recent 49 years （1951-1999）. （5） 73% （8/11） of heavy flood in the Yangtze River occurred in the （M + 1） and m year of annual mean solar activity during 1951-1999. （6） 91% （10/11） of severe floods in the Yangtze River in 17-22 Feb. and 3-9 Mar. of lunar calendar for the moon's phase on the Pure Brightness solar term Day （the Day is solar longitude at 15 degrees） from 1951 to 1999. （7） 91% （10/11） of severe floods in the Yangtze River in the year next ENSO beginning year and the year next ENSO year. These relations have important values for the prediction of severe floods in the Yangtze River. And the mechanism of impacts of astronomy physical factors on sever floods also gives discussing this paper.