极值理论在中长期地震预报中的应用

一、引言 极值理论是概率论中的一个重要分支,在许多领域已经广泛应用。例如,研究洪水的统计规律和洪水预报,研究地震活动性等。本文在进一步分析地震过程和过去工作的基础上,对极值分布函数进行了修改,应用新的分布函数,用于偿试中长期地震预报。 由于极值理论本身的特点,对观测资料要求较低,它不需要一段时间（譬如50年）内

AN APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY OF EXTREME VALUES TO MODERATE AND LONG INTERVAL EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

The modified form of the distribution function of extreme values of earthquakes has been obtained on the basis of analysis of earthquake processes.The new distribution function of extreme values is more suitable to the actual earthquake data.By using the new distribution function the mean periods of earthquake occurrences and the probable upper limits x_{2 of greatest earthquake magnitude for some seismic zones in China have been computed.The probability of the earthquakes which will occur during the coming five years in such seismic zones was estimated by examing the mean periods of earthquake occurrences and the case of the past earthquakes.The method of estimating the probability of earthquake occurrences has been checked by the earthquake data during the past seventeen years.In order to evaluate the degree of effectiveness of such earthquake prediction we introduce an index number.}