| 1998年夏季全球大气环流异常的预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王会军.1998年夏季全球大气环流异常的预测研究[J].地球物理学报,2001,44(6):729-734. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王会军 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目 (KZCX2 -2 0 3)，国家自然科学基金 ( 4 9735 1 6 0 )，国家重点基
础研究发展规划项目 (G1 9980 4 0 90 5 -2 ) . |
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| 摘 要： | 应用日本东京大学气候系统研究中心(CCSR)发展起来的一个全球大气环流谱模式(T42L200版本),对l998年夏季气候异常和大气环流的预测问题进行了研究,定量地检查了该模式对夏季降水和大气环流异常的预测准确度.说明该模式对1998年的预测水平是比较高的;并证实大气环流在春季的初始异常对北半球夏季大气环流和降水异常起了很重要的作用,而对南半球的作用则小得多.就中国长江流域1998年的降水异常而言,初始环流的作用约占50%.
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| 关 键 词： | 大气环流模式 降水异常 大气环流异常 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 0001-5733(2001)06-0729-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2000-09-08 |
A STUDY ON PREDICTION OF THE ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION IN 1998 |
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| WANG HUI,JUN.A STUDY ON PREDICTION OF THE ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION IN 1998[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2001,44(6):729-734. |
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| Authors: | WANG HUI JUN |
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| Institution: | Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China |
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| Abstract: | The prediction of the anomalous climate and general circulation for the summer of 1998 was studied by using the climate model developed in Japan. Quantitative verification on the accuracy of the prediction on the at mospheric circulation was performed by applying the correlation analysis. Results show that predictive skill is quite high. It is also indicated that both the SST anomalies and the initial atmospheric anomalies in spring are important for the anomalous rainfall over China and the anomalous atmospheric circulation in Northern Hemisphere during summer. The impacts of the initial atmospheric anomalies on the summer circulation in Southern Hemisphere is far from significant. The initial anomalous atmospheric circulation is responsible for about half of the total precipitation anomalies in South China. |
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| Keywords: | Atmospheric general circulation model Anomalous atmospheric circulation Anomalous precipitation Prediction |
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