关于地震带震级概率分布与潜在震源区震级概率分布关系的讨论

作者依据地震震级与空间联合概率分布模型,讨论了地震带震级概率分布与潜在震源区震级概率分布之间的关系。研究结果表明,如果地震带内地震震级概率分布服从截断的指数分布,则带内必存在震级概率密度不服从截断指数分布的潜在震源区。这一结论与实际地震资料的统计结果和地质学研究中提出的“特征地震”的概念是一致的。作者认为,在地震活动性分析、地震区划和其他工程地震研究工作中必须考虑潜在震源区的震级概率分布和地震带震级概率分布之间的制约关系,以正确确定每个潜在震源区的震级概率分布。

Discussion about the Relationship between the Probabilistic Distribution of Magnitude in Seismic Province and that Distribution in Seismic Potenial Area

According to the joint probabilistic distribution model of magnitude and space,the author discussed the relationship letween the probabilistic distribution of magnitude in seismic province and that distribution in seismic potential area. The results show that if the magnitude probabilistic distribution follows the exponential form,there must be some potentail areas in which the magnitude probabilistic distributions don' t conform that form. The result is consistance with the concept of " characteristic earthquake" derived from the study of actual records of seismicity and the study of geology. The author suggests that the relationship of the probabilstic distribution of magnitude in seismic province and in seismic potential area must be considered in the study of the analysis of seismicity, seismic zonation and engineering seismology for the purpose of the evaluation of the probabilistic distribution of magnitude correctlly.