基于实地调研的中国西南地区不同震级人员死亡数量研究

地震是造成人员死亡最严重的自然灾害之一,震后对人员死亡等灾情的快速评估是地震应急响应和救援的关键。总结经验发现,在地震前进行预评估工作是提高震后灾情快速评估精度和时效性的有效手段。通过对62次发生在我国西南地区的历史震例分析后发现,当地震震级小于4.5级时,基本不会造成人员死亡情况。本研究利用我国云南和四川部分区县的实地调研数据,发现地震人员死亡数与震级存在指数函数关系,由此构建了针对各个区县的地震人员死亡人数指数函数估算模型,并计算了回归系数。基于该模型,获得了5.0～8.0级地震人员死亡数查找表(以0.5级为间隔),用于辅助震后快速评估工作。

Study of the Relationship between Fatality and Earthquake Magnitudes in Southwest China Based on Pre-earthquake Survey

Earthquake is one of the most serious natural disasters that has caused great casualties in China. The rapid assessment of casualties after earthquake is the key to earthquake emergency response. The pre-assessment survey before earthquake is an effective means to improve the accuracy of post-earthquake rapid assessment. Through analysis of 62 historical earthquakes in the western region of China,we found that the earthquakes with magnitude less than 4.5 would not cause death. In this study we used the pre-evaluation data of some districts and counties in Yunnan and Sichuan Province to develop an exponential function relationship between the number of deaths and the magnitude of the earthquake,to construct the exponential function relationship for each district and county,and then to calculate the regression coefficient. Based on the above results,the relations of earthquake casualties with magnitude 5.0 to 8.0 have been obtained at intervals of magnitude 0.5,which can be used to assist the rapid assessment after the earthquake.