北京市居民住房需求结构分析

住房需求结构分析是制定住房政策和相关技术标准的基础。根据家庭收入、当前居住条件等指标来界定具有不同需求的居民群体， 以及确定适合各个层次的合理的住宅供给目标， 是住房政策中的一个具有重大现实意义的课题。为此， 从住房消费行为的微观视角出发， 对城市住房需求层次的定量划分以及需求结构的定量模拟问题进行了研究。首先， 分析了家庭人口、收入、当前住房面积、职业、住房区位、投资倾向和家庭结构变更预期等住房需求的影响因子及其相互作用关系。在此基础上， 提出了由住房需求层次模型和住房面积需求模型 相互嵌套而构成的住房需求结构的空间相互作用模型。其次， 运用北京市家庭住房需求的调 查数据， 对模型进行了检验分析。分析结果较好地再现了居民的住房需求， 不仅定量地给出了划分住房需求层次的适当门槛， 还揭示了不同需求层次的家庭在期待住房面积方面的数值差异。由此证明了通过住房需求结构的微观分析来确定相关需求主体的划分标准和住房面积 标准的可行性， 为住房政策研究提供了新的方法。

Modeling Housing Demand Structure with an Example of Beijing

A clear understanding of housing demand structure is the fundamental of making housing policies and stipulating relevant technical standards.In particular, it is critical to clarify the dividing lines of households with different demands, so as to define the target of housing policies.In addition, it is significant to estimate the appropriate housing size demand of different demand groups in order to make practical housing provision plans.In this paper, the above issues are addressed through modeling the housing demand of urban families on a micro scale.First, the influencing factors of urban households' housing demand, including family structure, income, current dwelling conditions, social status, location choice, investment tendencies, etc., are analyzed with their interactions being considered.Based on theoretical analysis, a two-level interaction model is proposed for representing the housing demand structure.Second, the model is used for analyzing the housing demand of Beijing residents, and it is empirically proved to be successful.As a result, eight family groups with significantly differentiated housing demand were identified and the thresholds for splitting the family groups, such as monthly family income of 5000 RMB and current housing status, were clarified.Furthermore, the differentiations of housing size demand across the demand groups are quantitatively clarified.It was found that 100 m2, 110 m2, 140 m2, 170 m2, and 230 m2 were currently thought to be "ideal" for families with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or more persons, respectively.These ideal sizes are obviously unrealistic considering the restrictions of land and resources of Beijing, therefore they were adjusted based on the modeling results.The calculation implied that the appropriate housing sizes for 2-person, 3-person, 4-person and 5-or-more-person families are 70-80 m2, 80-95 m2, 90-110 m2, and 90-155 m2, respectively.These results provide many useful implications for housing policy and enrich the methodology of housing demand structure analysis through micro-scale modeling.