中国省际旅游发展质量特征及空间差异

从旅游发展质量内涵出发,建立包括5 个子系统共31 个指标组成的综合评价指标体系及旅游"质"-"量"发展协调度评价模型。基于旅游发展质量的测度,判定旅游发展"质"与"量"的协调发展度,并结合旅游发展速度进行分析。研究表明:① 旅游发展质量整体水平不高,空间差异明显,东部 > 中部 > 西部,31 个省区划分为高质量、中高质量、中低质量、低质量4 种类型,旅游产品等子系统发展质量也存在明显的空间分异性;② 旅游发展质量与旅游经济规模等指标的关联性特征表明,传统的旅游经济统计指标并不能反映旅游发展质量的高低;③按协调发展度各省旅游发展质量可划分为良好协调发展型、中度协调发展型、勉强协调发展型、中度失调发展型4 种类型,多数省区为中度协调发展型与勉强协调发展型;④ 基于局部加权回归(LOESS)的曲线拟合发现,随着协调发展度的提升,旅游发展速度总体上呈现出较显著的回落趋势。

Characteristics and Spatial Difference of Provincial Tourism Development Quality in China

Tourism development quality is an important strategic issue of tourism development, and it is also the key to accelerate healthy and sustainable development of tourism industry in China. For a long time, tourism development quality level is not high due to one-sided pursuit of development speed and scale for tourism industry in China. It is urgent to study this scientific proposition in order to ensure the coordinated development between tourism quality and tourism quantity. Based on the connotation of tourism development quality, this article proposes that the evaluation index system of tourism development quality, which is composed of 5 categories of indexes (quality of tourism products, quality of tourism service, quality of tourism facilities, quality of tourism market and quality of tourism environment) and 31 detailed indexes. In order to measure the coordination between tourism development quality and quantity, this article also establishes the coordinated development degree model. According to provincial cross section data in 2010, the index of tourism development quality was calculated, and coordination of tourism development quality and quantity was measured, then each provincial tourism development situation was analyzed. The major conclusions of this article are as follows. Firstly, Chinese overall level of tourism development quality is rather low, and spatial difference is obvious. Provincial tourism development quality reduces from the Eastern China to Central China, and from Central China to Western China. The tourism quality of Chinese provinces can be divided into four types, which are high quality type, high-intermediate quality type, intermediate-low quality type and low quality type. Secondly, from the aspect of correlation between tourism development quality and other economic indicators, tourism economic development level could not reflect the quality of tourism development, and there is also no corresponding relationship between tourism economic scale and tourism development quality. One-sided pursuit of quantity indicators such as tourism development scale is not recommended. These tourism economic indicators should be downplayed in the future, and multi-dimensional indicators such as tourist satisfaction index, tourism environment quality index, level of convenience for people and the degree of standardization should be attached more importance. In addition, from the aspect of coordination between tourism quality and quantity, the overall level of Chinese tourism development coordination is on the low side. According to it, 31 provinces in China can be divided into four types, which are good coordination, moderate coordination, reluctant coordination and maladjustment. Finally, this article focused on the tourism development speed. The result shows that tourism development speeds in good coordinate development provinces are commonly at low level. Based on locally weighted regression and smoothly scatterplots, this article finds that tourism development speed presents a significant pullback trend on the whole with the improvement of coordinated development degree, and the possible factors of the pullback trend are discussed.