改进的灰色模型在中国能源消费及其CO2排放预测中的研究

中国高速的经济发展导致了快速的能源消费和地球温暖化气体的排放量。本文应用灰色理论建立了中国的终端能源消费量的动态预测模型，同时应用等维递补及带有马尔科夫链符号估计的残差修正，对原始模型进行了改进。后验检验的结果证明了改进的预测模型具有较高的计算精度。预测结果表明，两种经济发展情况（高速及低速）下，从2000年到2030年期间的终端能源消费量的平均增长率将分别达到3．06％和2．18％，2030年CO2 的排放量将分别达到2000年的 2． 15及 1．60倍。其中工业及居民生活的能源消费量的增加速度快于其他部门。这表明了中国将要加快其工业化及都市化的进程．终端消费中，煤炭的消费量所占的比例将要逐年减少，而电力的比例则将逐年增大。

Improved Gray Forecast Models for China's Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission

Abstract: The rapid economic growth in China continues to result in the fast energy consumption and GHGs emis-sion. Gray theory is used to develop the dynamic GM(1,h) models .for forecasting the final energy consumption inChina. In order to improve the forecast accuracy, the original GM(1,h) models are improved by using two method-ologies of equal dimension replenishment and residual modification with Markov-chain sign estimation. The resultsof posteriori checks show that the improved models are more reliable and have higher forecast accuracy. The forecastresults of two economic growth scenarios indicate that China's final energy consumption will increase rapidly, andthe average annual growth rates will reach 3. 06% and 2. 18% respectively in the period of 2000 to 2030. The CO2 e-missions for two scenarios in 2030 will increase to 2. 15 and 1. 60 times as against 2000(3898 Tg) respectively. Theenergy consumption of industrial and residential sectors will increase faster than that of other sectors. This reflectsthat China will accelerate the processes of industrialization and urbanization. The coal ratio will decrease and the e-electricity ratio will increase gradually in the final energy consumption.