一种融合地理空间指标的土地需求量预测方法——以佛山市南海区为例

目前关于土地需求量的预测方法往往忽视地理空间因素。本文提出了一种融合地理空间指标的土地需求量的多因素预测方法,通过在需求量预测计算中引入地理标准距离、标准差椭圆、Moran'' s I指数等与土地利用类型的空间分布和空间形态相关的因素,探讨基于地理空间指标进行土地需求量预测的可行性和准确性。以佛山市南海区历年的土地利用调查数据为基础进行案例研究,结果表明:相对于地理经济指标,引入地理空间指标的土地需求量预测结果准确率更高。但由于数据量的限制,本文所得的结果需要收集更多数据采用多种统计分析方法进一步加以研究验证。

A method to forecast land demand by fusing geo-spatial indicators:Exemplified by Nanhai in Foshan

The paper puts forward a method to forecast land demand by fusing several geo-spatial indicators.Traditionally,economic and social factors were regarded as the main influencing factors in forecasting land demand,hence the effects of spatial factors were neglected by researchers.However,for each type of land use,its spatial distribution and spatial shape are bound up with the other type of land use by interacting each other,so spatial factor should be introduced to forecast land use demand as a key ingredien...