新疆石河子近40a气候变化特征

以新疆石河子气象局1967～2006年年平均气温、降水量和无霜期观测资料为研究对象，运用线性拟合、3a滑动平均和Mann--Kendall方法进行趋势和突变分析。结果表明：近40a石河子年平均气温呈上升趋势，平均增温率达到0．51℃／10a，秋季增暖率较大，夏季和冬季增暖率较小；年降水量呈上升趋势，春季趋向于暖干，冬季趋向于暖湿；石河子气温突变时间是1988年，降水突变时间是1969年和1993年；受平均气温升高的影响，无霜期天数增加率为4．74d／10a，近40a共增加19d。

Climatic Characteristic in Xinjiang Shihezi Region in Recent 40 Years

Based on the average annual temperature, annual precipitation and no frost period data from Shihezi Meteorological Bureau during the period of 1967 -2006, the climate trend was analyzed using linear fitting method, 3 -year smoothing average and M -K methods. The results show that： （1） in recent 40 years the average annual temperature increased by 0.51 ℃/10 a. and the increase rate was larger in autumn, smaller in summer and winter; （2） the annual precipitation inereased also, the trend toward warm and dry in spring but warm and wet in winter; （3） the abrupt change of temperature was in the year of 1988, and 1969, 1993 for precipitation; （4） the days of no frost period incresed by 4.74 d/10 a, and 19 days increased totally in recent 40 years.