| 多因子分析在辽宁地区地震预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯兴春,李永振.多因子分析在辽宁地区地震预测中的应用[J].东北地震研究,2010,26(3):36-41. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯兴春 李永振 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 铁岭地震台,辽宁铁岭,112001
2. 辽宁省地震局,辽宁沈阳,110034 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文根据多因子分析的主成分分析法,选择与地震强度有关的3级以上地震频次N（ML≥3.0）、b值、η值、Mf值、C值和Ac值等6个参量进行主成分分析,实现对上述参量的有效约简。这6个参量之间有一定的相关性,各参量在不同时段的变化各有所异,但是采用主成分分析法可以得到反应地震强度特征的综合指标W,发现该指标W,在辽宁海城7.3级、岫岩5.4级地震前出现明显的异常变化,震后恢复。这表明综合指标W可以较好的反映地震活动的异常特征。
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| 关 键 词： | 主成分分析 相关性 特征向量 贡献率 |
APPLICATION ON THE MULTI-FACTOR COMPONENT ANALYSIS IN LIAONING EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION |
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| FENG Xing-chun,LI Yong-zhen.APPLICATION ON THE MULTI-FACTOR COMPONENT ANALYSIS IN LIAONING EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J].Seismological Research of Northeast China,2010,26(3):36-41. |
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| Authors: | FENG Xing-chun LI Yong-zhen |
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| Institution: | 1.Tieling Seismic Station,Liaoning Tieling 112001,China;2.Earthquake Administration of Liaoning Province,Liaoning Shenyang 110034,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the multi-factor analysis,the primary component is analyzed by 6 seismicity parameters of earthquake frequency N（ML≥3.0）,b-value,η-value,A（b）-value,Mf-value,Acvalue,which has relation with the earthquake strenth.It reduced the above-metioned parameters effectively.There were some relativities among 6 parameters.And each of them was different in distinct stages.But the earthquake intensity synthetic index W can be gained by the primary component analysis.W value showed obvious anomalies before 2 earthquakes occurred in the Liaoning area and returned to normal after that.It showed that the synthetic index W can reflect the anomalous characteristics of the seismicity. |
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| Keywords: | primary component analysis method relativity eigenvector contribution rate |
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