基于可公度方法的香港雷暴活动趋势判断

选取香港雷暴活动异常年作为研究对象，分析了1960―2013年香港地区雷暴发生规律，利用可公度法对其未来雷暴异常年进行趋势判断，在此基础上探讨了太阳活动、ENSO事件与雷暴活动的关系。结果表明：1）1960―2013年香港地区雷暴活动呈现增加趋势，增长速率为2.6 d/10 a，与中国内陆大部分地区雷暴日数呈下降趋势相比，香港雷暴活动异常增强。2）香港雷暴活动异常年具有明显的可公度性，未来10年中，2017年的随机性概率为86.67％，不漏报的置信水平为81.25％；2018年的随机性概率为93.33％，不漏报的置信水平为87.50％，2017和2018年雷暴多发趋势信号较强，有可能为雷暴活动异常年。2017年可公度结构系表现为以1、3、5、8、15 a为主周期的平移对称；2018年表现为以1、4、5、8、12、15 a为主周期的平移对称。3）太阳黑子、ENSO与香港雷暴异常活动具有相关性。当太阳黑子处于低值区时，香港地区雷暴活动强烈，赤道太平洋海温异常偏暖时（厄尔尼诺），香港雷暴活动异常偏多。

Tendency Judgment of Severe Thunderstorms in Hong Kong Based on Commensurability

Using time symmetry method system of natural disasters, this paper analyzed changing characteristics and judged tendency of severe thunderstorms in Hong Kong during 1960-2013. Results indicated that: 1) Severe thunderstorms had an increasing trend during 1960-2013 in Hong Kong and the increasing rate was 2.6 d/10 years. As compared with the fact that thunderstorm days had a decreasing trend from mid to high latitudes in China, thunderstorms in Hong Kong were especially severe. 2) Severe thunderstorms had obvious commensurability in Hong Kong. Commensurability Test showed that, in next 10 years, severe thunderstorms would increase again in 2017 and 2018. The random probability of Butterfly Structure of 2017 would be 86.67％, and that of 2018 would be 93.33％. So according to the results of Map of Butterfly Structure (MBS), those two years might be thunderstorm anomaly years, severe thunderstorms would happen again in 2017 and 2018. The primary periods of commensurability structure of 2017 would be 1, 3, 5, 8 and 15 years; and those of 2018 would be 1, 4, 5, 8, 12 and 15 years. The commensurability structure could clearly reflect the symmetry of disaster years, that would be able to prove Commensurability Test and MBS. 3) Severe thunderstorms had closely relationship with sunspots and ENSO. When there were only a few sunspots, there would be obviously more severe thunderstorms in Hong Kong, and vice versa. Also when SST of equatorial Pacific was anomalously high (El Niño), there would be obviously more severe thunderstorms in Hong Kong.