1755、1849年苏皖地区重大洪涝事件复原分析

利用清代档案资料，复原了1755年和1849年苏皖地区的洪涝实况，并对其特征进行对比分析，同时探讨了洪涝发生的可能原因。结果表明：1755年雨季持续时间长，春、夏、秋3季都发生大涝，淮河以北及江淮地区尤为严重；而1849年雨期提前，大雨多发，长江沿江和长江以南地区洪涝严重；1755年和1849年是苏皖地区历史上非常严重的洪涝年，其洪涝程度可与该地区20世纪所出现的特大洪涝灾害相比拟；另外，本文还初步探讨了1755年和1849年洪涝与ENSO和太阳活动之间的关系。

THE RECONSTRUCTION OF 1755 AND 1849 SEVERE FLOOD EVENTS IN JIANGSU AND ANHUI PROVINCES

Based on historical documents of Qing Dynasty, the 1755 and 1849 flood events in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces have been reconstructed and contrasted, and the causes of them have also been discussed. The results are summarized as follows: (1) 1755 and 1849 flood events both are very strong and the strength of them is close to some severe flood events in the 20 th century in the region, such as 1931 and 1954 events. (2) The rainy season in 1755 was very long with a long Meiyu period, and the flood in the north of Jiangsu and Anhui provinces was more severe than that in other regions in this year. In contrast, advanced rainy season with very frequent downfalls was the important cause of 1849 flood event, and the south of Jiangsu and Anhui provinces was the main region where severe flood happened. (3) Analysis also suggests that the two flood events are possibly related to ENSO episodes and sunspot activities.