干旱区文化旅游地社会-生态系统恢复力年际变化及影响因素——以甘肃省敦煌市为例

文旅融合背景下,分析文化旅游地社会-生态系统恢复力年际变化及影响因素,能够为文化旅游地可持续发展提供较好的理论和实践指导。以敦煌市为典型案例地,从社会、经济、文化和生态环境4个方面构建文化旅游地社会-生态系统恢复力评价指标体系,运用灰色关联TOPSIS、耦合协调度模型、BP神经网络等方法,探究了2007—2018年案例区社会-生态系统恢复力时序变化及影响因素。结果表明：（1） 2007—2018年敦煌市社会-生态系统恢复力处于较良好的状态且可划分为波动-缓慢增长-快速上升阶段。（2） 文化和生态环境子系统在决定敦煌市社会-生态系统恢复力程度方面起到主导作用。（3） 社会-生态系统及各子系统间的耦合度和协调度均呈上升趋势,子系统间对系统总体的协调度普遍起正向推动作用且作用强度随时间推移不断增大。（4） 各因子的贡献率大小为敦煌百度指数>敦煌研究院研究生数量>各类文物保护单位>旅游业碳总排放量>文化产业经营单位。

Interannual variation and influencing factors of social-ecological system resilience of cultural tourism destination in arid area:A case of Dunhuang City,Gansu Province

This paper mainly studies the interannual changes and influential factors of social-ecological system resilience of cultural tourism destinations in arid areas. Existing studies on social-ecological systems have not paid much attention to cultural tourism destinations in the arid regions of western China. Therefore, taking Dunhuang City as a typical case, in this paper, we constructed an indicator system to evaluate the resilience of the social-ecological system of cultural tourism destinations from four aspects: social, economic, cultural, and ecological environment. We also conducted research using gray correlation TOPSIS, coupling coordination degree model, and BP neural network. As a result, the following were found. (1) Compared with endogenous variables, the social-ecological system of cultural tourism destinations in arid regions strongly reflects exogenous variables. The social-ecological system resilience of Dunhuang City has been good from 2007 to 2018 and can be divided into fluctuating, slow-growth, and rapid-rise stages. (2) Various subsystems have different impacts on the resilience of the social-ecological system of cultural tourism destinations in arid regions. Cultural and ecological environment subsystems play a leading role in determining the degree of social-ecological system resilience in Dunhuang City. (3) The degree of coupling and coordination between the social-ecological system and its subsystems shows an upward trend. The subsystems generally play a positive role in promoting the overall degree of coordination of the system, and the action intensity increases with time. (4) The contribution rate of the factors is as follows: Dunhuang Baidu index>Dunhuang Research Institute graduate students>various protection units of cultural relics>total carbon emission of tourism>cultural industry operation units.