湖北省巴东县新城区滑坡灾害空间预测

论文在综合分析巴东县新城区区域地质背景及滑坡基本特征的基础上，分析了影响滑坡灾害发生的各因素与滑坡发生之间的相关性，提出影响灾害发生的主要因素：地形坡度、斜坡形态、岩性、构造、水的作用、人类工程活动。利用GIS的空间分析功能将各因素图件栅格化为86216个不规则单元。基于逻辑回归的方法对滑坡灾害进行了定量的概率预测。同时，对研究区进行滑坡灾害空间预测分区，将预测结果与该地区历史滑坡灾害发生情况进行对比发现预测精度为85．71％。说明所建立的模型具有较高的预测精度，是可以用于预测分析的。

Spatial Prediction of Landslide Hazards in New Site of Badong County, Hubei Province

Based on the study of comprehensive analysis on regional geological conditions and basic characteristics of landslide in new site of Badong County, China, the correlation between each inducing factor and landslide risk was analyzed . The major factors were concluded which involved landform gradient, pattern of slope, lithology, structure, action of water and engineering activities. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the map of each factor was divided into 86216 irregular units. Logistic regression method had been used to create a landslide probability prediction on a quantitative basis. Meanwhile, the paper carried on landslide spatial prediction division, then contrasted the result with the occurrence of historical landslide hazards, finally found that the precision can be up to 85.71% . It showed that the model had relatively high precision and could be used to prediction analysis.