吉林省春秋季林火气象指数的建立及其变化特征

以吉林省为例,利用该省1952—2010年森林火灾(简称林火,下同)次数资料和全省气象站资料,分析该省林火次数时间变化特征及其与气象条件的关系,利用水分平衡法和统计回归方法建立林火次数气候影响评价模型并对其进行比较;在此基础上,利用水分平衡模型建立林火指数时间变化序列。结果表明,林火次数与降水、相对湿度、气温、风速等气象因子关系密切,水分平衡模型的气候影响评价效果优于统计回归模型;近62 a来吉林省林火指数和次数均呈增加趋势,表明气候变化有利于林火发生;2000年之后进入春、秋季林火多发期。

Establishment and variation characteristics of forest fire meteorological indexes in spring and autumn in Jilin province

Using the original data of forest fires frequency from 1952-2010 and the weather stations data in Jilin province, an analysis is made on the temporal variations of forest fires frequency and its relationship with meteorological conditions. The moisture balance method and statistical regression analysis method are used to establish climate impact assessment models of forest fires frequency respectively, and then one model is contrasted with another one. On this basis, a time variation series of forest fire meteorological indexes is established by using moisture balance model. The results show that forest fires frequency is closely related to precipitation, relative humidity, temperature, wind speed and other meteorological factors, and the climate impact assessment result of the moisture balance model is better than that of the statis-tical regression model. Both index and frequency of forest fires in Jilin province are in increase trend in the latest 62 years, which show cli- mate change is in favor of the occurrence of forest fires. After 2000 forest fires in spring and autumn occur frequently in Jilin.