青岛市崂山区地质灾害气象预报预警

本文基于地质灾害递进分析理论与方法，进行了崂山区地质灾害气象预报预警探讨。崂山区地质灾害及隐患点发育的类型主要是滑坡、崩塌和泥石流。据调查，区内地质灾害及隐患点83处，其中已发生灾害17处，新的灾害隐患66处。崂山区地质灾害基础因子主要是地形坡度、地质构造、地面高程、岩体、植被、水系和坡形，诱发因：于主要是大气降水、人类工程活动和地震。大气降水是变化频繁的敏感因子。通过分析崂山区日降水量、持续累计降水量与地质环境条件、地质灾害发生频率、发生时间的关系，结合国内其他地区的分析结论，初步选定崂山区地质灾害预报预警降水量临界值，在此基础上建立了崂山区地质灾害预报预警信息系统，并以图形和表格两种形式在网上对外发布成功。通过回访调查，预报基本准确，服务效果明显，在很大程度上减轻和避免了灾害损失，有效地保护了人民生命财产的安全，促进了经济、社会的持续、稳定、健康发展。

Experimental geohazard warning based on weather forecasting of Laoshan District, Qingdao City

We did experimental geohazard warning using analysis method by four parameters(AMFP) in the Laoshan District,Qingdao City.The main geohazard types of this area are landslide,rockfall and debris flow.There are about 83 sites of geohazard,17 of which were already suffered,and the other 66 are potential sites.The basic geo environmental condition factors include slope gradient,structural geology,elevation,rock type,vegetation,drainage and curvature.The provocation factors include precipitation,human activity and earthquake,and the precipitation is the most sensitive factor.On the basis of analysis of the relationships between daily precipitation,continuous precipitation,geoenvironmental conditions,human activity and the time and location of geohazard,and with the consideration of the result of studies in other areas,we put forward the critical precipitation for geohazards.Then,we constructed the geohazard warning system based on weather forecasting,released the warnings in the formats of figure and table.The warnings are proved to be correct by the turn-around investigation,and got significant benefit to the society.