基于孕灾环境的全球台风灾害链分类与区域特征分析

在全球气候变化与经济一体化的背景下,台风引发的次生灾害构成灾害链,加剧人口、经济等多方面的损失。以2000-2010年案例数据为基础,依据台风所经过区域的孕灾环境特性,提出了全球台风灾害链分类体系,并统计得出类型与强度的区域特征：在西北太平洋,主要发生于山地（丘陵）区（占34.4%）,强度为3.1;在南太平洋,主要发生于岛屿区（占59.2%）,强度为2.6~3.0;在北印度洋,主要发生于河口海岸区（占35.8%）,强度为0.7~0.9;在南印度洋,主要发生于平原区（占31%）,强度为2.6;在北大西洋与东北太平洋,主要发生于平原海岸区（分别占24.7%与31.2%）,强度分别为2.0~2.3和2.3。研究结果可为台风灾害链自动识别、动态模拟与预测提供理论基础,用以支持区域防灾减灾建设与应急响应策略制定。

Classification and regional features analysis of global typhoon disaster chains based on hazard-formative environment

In the context of global climate change and economic integration, the catastrophes, which are caused by typhoon occur frequently and bring a great loss to the whole world in the aspect of population, economy and others. As a result, the typhoon catastrophes pose a great threat to regional security. Some secondary disasters such as storm surges, floods, landslides and debris flows, which are triggered by typhoon, constitute disaster chains with an accumulative and amplified effect on disaster losses. According to disaster system theory, this paper proposes a classification system of global typhoon disaster chains with cases data from 2000 to 2010 that is collected from internet and media report, based on the characteristics of hazard-formative environment that typhoons pass over. Then it makes the classified statistics of disaster chains on type and intensity, and obtains regional features of six ocean areas in the world by classifying and analyzing case data. Result of regional features on type and intensity show that: in the Northwest Pacific Ocean region, typhoon disaster chains mainly occur in mountainous (or hilly) areas, the total proportion of disaster chains type can be 34.4%, and the intensity of disaster chains can be 3.1. In the South Pacific Ocean region, typhoon disaster chains mainly occur in the insular area, the total proportion of disaster chains type can be 59.2%, and the intensity of disaster chains can be 2.6 to 3.0. In the North India Ocean region, typhoon disaster chains mainly occur in the estuarine coastal area, the total proportion of disaster chains type can be 35.8%, and the intensity of disaster chains can be 0.7 to 0.9. In South India Ocean region, typhoon disaster chains mainly occur in the plain area, the total proportion of disaster chains type can be 31%, and the intensity of disaster chains can be 2.6. In the North Atlantic Ocean region and Northeast Pacific Ocean region, typhoon disaster chains occur mainly in the plain coastal area. In addition, the total proportion of North Atlantic Ocean can be 24.7%, and the intensity of disaster chains can be 2.0 to 2.3, the total proportion of Northeast Pacific Ocean can be 31.2%, and the intensity of disaster chains can be 2.3. This research can provide a theoretical basis for automatic recognition, dynamic simulation and forecast of typhoon disaster chains in the world to support infrastructure construction of regional disaster prevention, and help to make regional strategies of disaster mitigation and emergency responses or rescue.