中国人类福祉变化的驱动效应及时空分异

为建立碳排放敏感性人类福祉指数(HWI),运用LMDI方法对全国、区域及省区层面人类福祉变化的驱动效应及其时空分异进行分析,并得出以下结论：①改革开放30多年来,中国人类福祉水平不断提高,正向世界高人类福祉水平推进,但2005年以后人类福祉提升所付出的生态环境代价越来越大;②在1980-2010年期间的中国人类福祉提升中,2000年以前由经济效应和技术进步效应共同驱动,2000年以后则以经济效应驱动为主;③经济增长、技术进步和生态效率等因素共同影响中国区域人类福祉演变趋势。其中,经济增长和技术进步是主要驱动力,而生态效率效应则是主要的抑制力;从四大区域来看,提高技术进步和经济效率是东部地区提升人类福祉最主要的驱动因素,经济增长是中部、西部、东北地区提升人类福祉的核心驱动力;④中国人类福祉变化驱动效应可归纳为4种区域模式。其中,上海是技术效应为主的驱动模式,江西、湖南、四川、甘肃是经济效应为主的驱动模式,北京是“生态效率效应+技术效应”组合驱动模式,其他省区主要是“经济效应+技术效应”组合驱动模式;⑤中国应实施兼顾降低碳排放和提高人类福祉的低碳人文发展战略,着力扭转生态效率因素的减量效应;逐步改变经济效应为主推动人类福祉提升的驱动模式,构建人类福祉可持续提升的多元驱动模式。

Driving factors and spatiotemporal differentiation of human well-being change in China

By incorporating per capita carbon emission factor into human development index (HDI), this study proposed a carbon emission sensitive human well-being index (HWI) framework. By using this framework, we performed quantitative evaluations of change and regional patterns of human well-being in China from 1980 to 2010. The driving factors and spatiotemporal differentiation and change of human well-being were analyzed by logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) method. The results show that: (1) With over 30 years of reform and opening up, human well-being in China has been enormous increased and now is heading towards a high level compared to the global average. At the same time, however, carbon emission sensitive human well-being index of China presented an inverted U-shaped trend, which suggests that the environmental costs were also rising. (2) At the national level, the improvement of human well-being from 1980 to 2010 was mainly dependent on economic growth and limited by ecological efficiency. Before 2000, the change of human well-being was driven by economic growth together with technological advancement, but after 2000 the improvement was mainly dominated by the effect of economic growth. (3) Economic growth, technological advancement, and ecological efficiency were the main factors that jointly affected the change of human well-being at the regional level. Among these factors, economic growth and technological advancement were key driving forces but ecological efficiency was a main constraining force. Human well-being improvement in eastern China was mainly driven by technological advancement and economic efficiency, and in central, western, and northeastern China it was driven by the economic growth factor. (4) At the provincial level, driving factors of human well-being change can be divided into four types: in Shanghai, the change was mainly driven by technological advancement effect and in Jiangxi, Hunan, Sichuan, and Gansu it was economic growth that drove the change. In Beijing, ecological efficiency effect plus technological advancement effect led to the improvement in human well-being, and in other provinces the driving factors were economic growth and technological advancement. (5) We suggest that low-carbon human development strategy should be implemented to reverse the negative impact of low ecological efficiency. Economic development-driven human well-being improvement should be changed and more attention should be paid to advance technology development and reduce the negative effect of low ecological efficiency in China.