中国航空运输业与旅游业发展水平关系测度

近20 a来,中国航空运输业与旅游业均呈快速发展趋势,对两者关系的研究逐渐兴起。基于1985年以来中国航空旅客吞吐量和旅游人数的历史数据,采用面板VAR模型从全国和省域尺度定量分析了航空运输业与旅游业发展的关系。研究结果表明：中国航空运输业与旅游业的发展水平呈现出显著的时空相关性;在全国尺度上,两者发展呈现出长期均衡的关系,且航空运输业对旅游业发展的贡献率大于旅游业对航空运输业的贡献率;在省域尺度上,根据航空运输业与旅游业发展水平的相对关系,可将省份划分为高-高协调型、高-低磨合型、低-高磨合型、低-低协调型4种类型。

The Relationship Between the Development Level of Civil Aviation and Tourism in China

Since the civil aviation and tourism experienced a rapid development in China in the past two decades, the relationship between them has become a hot topic. Thispaper tries to explore the relationship between civil aviation and tourism at both national and provincial scalebased onthe data of airport passenger throughput and tourist arrivals since 1985 using PVAR method. Results indicate that: 1) China’s civil aviation and tourism show a significant positive relationship in both the temporal and spatial perspectives. Both of them have experienced 4 stages which are slow growth stage-slowly steady growth stage-fast steady growth stage and fast fluctuant growth stage. Spatially, airport passenger throughput and tourist arrivals show significant correlation, while the space correlation between airport passenger throughput and A-grade scenic spot show geographic differences. 2) At national scale, the civil aviation and tourism present a long-term equilibrium development. The growth of civil aviation and tourism show similar reflect when another is facing shock, which is reducing at the beginning and then increasing. The result of variance demonstrates that the development of civil aviation has larger impacts on tourism than impacts of tourism on civil aviation. 3) At provincial scale, the provinces are divided into 4 categories based on the relationship between civil aviation and tourism: a,high-high coordination areas, which are mainly located in the eastern. b, high-low rivaling areas, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other border region. c, low-high rivaling areas, mainly in the central region. d, low-low coordination areas, mainly located in the central and western regions.