中国县域城镇化的道路交通影响因素识别及空间协同性解析

本文基于人口普查数据和路网数据,利用空间滞后回归模型和耦合协调度模型等,对中国县域城镇化率的道路交通影响及其空间耦合协同性进行分析,研究表明：①中国县域低城镇化水平的县(区)主要集中在传统农区、集中连片贫困山区、高寒经济欠发达区。经济发展水平与人力资源空间上的错位,致使经济欠发达地区的人口倒挂,异地城市化特征显著;②中国县(区)道路交通优势度宏观上呈现出东西部区域差异和交通枢纽与外围区域的差异,“点—轴”地域结构特征显著,县域道路交通优势度数值呈现偏正态分布;③道路交通是城镇间和城镇与区域间联系的核心纽带和产业转型升级发展的传输廊道,开放式的道路系统增强了农村生产要素非农化转型的市场可介入性,对县域城镇化发展有积极作用。高速公路出口、火车站的布局对城镇化影响和带动农村要素非农化作用较为明显;④中国县域交通优势度与城镇化率耦合协调度分级分布为偏正态分布,城镇化发展与交通优势度相互影响显著,呈一定的双向耦合性。

Spatial coupling cooperative analysis of road transport superiority and urbanization at county level in China

With the fifth and sixth census and road network data, and using a spatial interoperability evaluation model and a spatial lag model, the spatial coupling relationship between China's road transport superiority degree and urbanization rate at the county level was analyzed. The result shows that: (1) Regional difference of China's urbanization rate is significant at the county level. Urbanization rate is low in traditional agricultural areas, poor contiguous mountainous counties (districts), and the spatial mismatch between economic development and labor resources was widespread, with urbanization taking place in areas away from residents’ place of origin in underdeveloped areas. (2) Regional difference of road transport superiority degree is clear between the eastern and western regions and between the transport hubs and peripheries, with a clear “point-axis” spatial structure at the regional level. Road transport superiority degree showed a partial normal distribution at the county level. (3) The overall coverage of highways, national highways, provincial highways, and county and township roads affects road accessibility for production flow, information flow, and non-agricultural market entrance of rural production factors, which affect urbanization development at the county level. Urbanization was obviously facilitated by the presence of highway exits and railway stations. (4) The spatial interoperability grade of road transport superiority degree and urbanization rate shows a partial normal distribution, with significantly mutual influence between urbanization and road transport development levels.