中国“出口世界工厂”的效率格局演变

中国制造业已形成了工业制成品和加工贸易出口为主的“世界工厂”模式,该种模式的特征为依托低廉劳动力、附加值低的粗放型增长。选取2000~2013年中国出口世界工厂模式的资源、人力、资本投入及出口、经济和环境产出指标,对全国及分省的出口世界工厂模式效率进行了数据包络分析（DEA）测度。结果发现,2000~2013年,全国及分省的出口世界工厂模式效率整体有所提高,但受金融危机影响,2008年以后效率出现了波动。非DEA有效的年份及区域,其成因主要包括资源环境、人力资本的投入冗余;加工出口、环境产出冗余。未来随着世界市场低迷、部分产业产能过剩、人口红利的逐渐消失、资源环境的压力增大,加工产品出口的世界工厂模式亟需转型。转型发展的关键举措包括增强自主创新能力,加快产业结构调整等。

Efficiency and Spatial Evolution of Chinese Export-oriented Manufacturing Factory Model

China’s manufacturing industry has been formed a export-oriented model, also called ‘world factory’, characterized by export processing industry based on the cheap labor and low added value. The article selected the index system of resources, energy, human capital, capital investment, exports, economic and environmental outputs. Export efficiencies of China and 31 provinces since 2000 to 2013 had been analyzed by data envelopment analysis measure. It was found that from 2000 to 2013, the national and provincial exports’ efficiencies had increased. However due to the financial crisis, there had been fluctuations in the overall efficiency of the manufacturing export factory after 2008. In 2009, 2010 and 2012, national export efficiencies are non-DEA effective, with only 0.866, 0.958 and 0.944 , respectively. In terms of provincial effectiveness, 22 provinces reached DEA-effective in the world-export-plant-model, while 27 provinces effective in 2010, 29 provinces effctive in 2013. In 2005, Liaoning, Jilin and other nine provinces were non-DEA effective. In 2010, the number of non-DEA effective provinces dropped to four, namely Liaoning, Hubei, Sichuan and Gansu, respectively. In 2013, the number of non-DEA effective provinces reduced to 2, Shanxi and Hubei province, respectively. The causes of non-DEA effective regions include redundancies of resources inputs, investment in human capital, exports processing, as well as environmental outputs. The model of exports of processed products in the world factory pattern should be urgently restructured in the future, as the world’s market downturn, some industry overcapacity, gradually disappearance of demographic dividend, pressure of resource and the environment increasing. Key initiatives of restructuring include enhanced capability of independent innovation, speeding up industrial restructuring, transformation from the low end assembly stage to the improved quality phase characterized by high technology content, high added value , etc.