水资源可持续性的参数敏感性分析

通过界定敏感性参数的含义,认为参数的敏感性是系统对某一指参数的变化的敏感程度,以此为依据建立M-YAS模型分析参数的敏感性。以佛山市为例选取37 项影响水资源可持续的参数,分析水资源可持续性的参数敏感性问题,结果表明：37项反映水资源可持续性的参数中,仅13 项参数（生活用水定额、林牧渔畜用水量、工业用水定额、农田灌溉用水量、工业用水量、耕地灌溉定额、万元工业增加值用水量、火电冷却用水量、城乡生活用水量、工业节水、万元生产总值用水量、生活节水和农业节水）对于水资源可持续性的目标层而言是敏感性参数,且13项参数均来自用水结构与效率的准则层,说明区域水资源可持续性的目标层对用水结构与效率的准则层较为敏感。

Analysis on Parameters Sensitivity for the Sustainability of Water Resources

Water resources endowment, economic level, science and technology level and management are influence the sustainable development of water resources. There is different impact for the different indicators on regional water resources sustainability. The subtle differences of the indicators, which is a sensitive indicator of regional water resources sustainability, can lead to a greater difference in regional water resources sustainability. The sensitivity of Regional Water Resources Sustainability provides a more subtle decision support for macro management of water resources, which makes the efficient use of water resources and the purpose of the study. The study on regional water resources sustainable sensitivity, which appears large differences in the sustainability of regional water resources due to the difference in factors, provides more subtle decision support in macro management of water resources; makes more efficient use of water resources. Sensitivity studies can identify the sensitivity factors have important influence on the sustainability of water resources from many uncertainties, Foshan was taken as the research object of the paper, which analysised parameter sensitivity of the sustainability of water resources. This article established sensitivity analysis model (M-YAS), and selected 37 parameters, which affect the water resources sustainable.The results showed that: only 13 parameters from 37 the parameters is sensitive parameters for water resources sustainability target layer. And the domestic water quota is most sensitive for the target layer, followed by forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and livestock water. Another important conclusion was shown as: 13 parameters were from the structure and efficiency on the basis of the water layer. It showed that the goal of the sustainability of water resources and efficiency on the basis of the structure of water layers is more sensitive. The results displayed that the sustainability of water resources in Foshan city is affected by 13 indicators reflecting the structure and efficiency of water.