滑坡定量预测的非线性理论方法

滑坡时空预测是当前滑坡研究中的难题，特别是滑坡时间预测工作，其进展缓慢。本文基于非线性科学理论，分析了滑坡活动的分形特征及时间分形预测方法，研究了滑坡空间预测的人工神经网络特征，系统介绍了滑坡时间预测的非线性动力学理论。在此基础上，讨论了滑坡定量预测的发展趋势。

THE NONLINEAR THEORY OF THE QUANTITATIVE LANDSLIDE PREDICTION AND ITS METHODS

At present,the temporal and spatial prediction of landslide are difficult problems of landslide research.especially the temporal prediction.it developes slowly. In this paper, on the basis of nonlinear theory, the fractal features of landslide activities and its fractal method of the temporal prediction were analysed,the man-made neural network feature of the spatial prediction of landslide was studied. the nonlinear dynamic theory of the temporal prediction of landslide was also introduced systematically. Therefore, 'the tendency of the quantitative landslide prediction was discussed.