Probabilistic evaluation of liquefaction potential under earthquake loading

This paper presents a procedure to perform the risk analysis for ground failure by liquefaction. The first part of this study describes the differential equation of a smooth hysteretic model to characterize the behavior of the soil under random loading. The parameters of the proposed model to represent the experimental relationship are discussed. The second part of this study is to develop a method to calculate the probability that a specified volume of soil will liquefy at a given depth in the deposit. The liquefaction is defined as the result of cumulative damage caused by seismic loading. The fatigue life of soil can be determined on the basis of the N---S relationship and Miner's cumulative damage law. The rain-flow method is used to count the number of cycles of stress response of the soil deposit. Finally, the probability of liquefaction is obtained by integration over all the possible ground motion and the fragility curves of liquefaction potential. The sensitivity of the reliability against liquefaction to soil system parameters is also examined.